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Post by joanna on Aug 10, 2014 16:38:56 GMT
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." He knew a thing or two, that Einstein bloke.......
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Post by whitesince63 on Aug 10, 2014 17:19:51 GMT
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." He knew a thing or two, that Einstein bloke....... Also a bit like the old stock market quote "It's different this time". Thing is you don't have to be Einstein to see what's wrong.
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Post by joanna on Aug 11, 2014 15:29:35 GMT
I thought sure that Andy L would reappear on the site to take issue with me over the insinuation that Dougie is repeating his errors insanely......
He usually gives us an interesting summary of each game, too.......
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Post by andyl on Aug 11, 2014 16:03:35 GMT
Einstein indeed. Posters must long for a time when DF announces ' I have done my share. It is time to go'-And if he could do it elegantly...all the better
There may be scientists amongst us? I'm not. But maybe ideas of relativity also have place in the analysis. For my part I feel a bit more confident about lobbing in Herakleitos and the opposing notion that everything flows and you don't step in the same river twice. It seems to me that DF's critics want it both ways. He is to be criticised for rotation policy and inconsistency yet at the same time for doing the same thing over and over to a fault. Which is it?
Gathering up notions and relativities from other threads DF's supporters are warned against leaping out of the woodwork and saying it's only the first game when it's obvious that we are seeing a continuation of the bad old ways. But since when has the first game of any season in any league predicted outcomes at the end of the season. Man City got off to a shocking start last year and weren't any better yesterday.Bolton drew at Burnley last year and we criticised the team for inadequacy struggling to make an impact against one of the league's certain relegation candidates!!! In 1996/7 we drew away at Port Vale first off and after three wins were slaughtered at Southend 5-2( albeit clubbing Grimsby for 6 a few days later)
I wasn't at Watford on Sat. I maybe had the better afternoon at Old Trafford for cricket. But I was at Watford the two previous seasons. Two years ago we were outclassed from the moment they scored. Last year we controlled a dour defensive game when they were in the middle of a dreadful sequence of home defeats and Almunia gifted Beckford our winner. On neither occasion, from memory, did we match them for possession. Curiously we seem to have done so on Saturday. We also matched them in other key stats re shots but committed nearly twice as many fouls. Those are not the stats of the lifeless effort of 2012/13. OK only one stat matters and we were outdone by Deeney ( 24 goals 2013/14) and Vydra ( we all remember him in 2012/3). But it is all relative. Against other teams with a similar level of commitment we could surely have drawn or won- and yet would that have predicted the season any better?
We have a striker problem. One poster argues that Mason was far inferior to Jutkiewicz last season. That's not what I saw. In fact although I liked Jutkiewicz's contribution for us and argued that he could be man of the season I was really worried re his seeming lack of fitness and given the choice of who to acquire would have gone for Mason every time and said so on here. Some posters are arguing that with no centre forward to play off he will be poor. But this year he has a winger who can get round the flanks whom press and posters identified as our best player at Watford. This will be a great help to Mason. We cannot prejudge what he may achieve whether in a one up front role or a two or a three. But my instinct is that he will be a good asset whilst we have him
Last season we made an abysmal start to the season, especially at home and perked up towards the end. So are those posters who predict no change anticipating the same again or last year's and this one game's rubbish effort to be what we will see throughout the year
Moxey apparently had a stinker! This time last year Baptiste ws just about OK and ditto Tierney. The latter crocked himself and the former turned out to be a crock ( unless anyone disagrees??)Maybe Moxey can improve? There's lots of time to do so. Most comemtnators argu that Ream was Man of the season and Mills made great progress in 2013/14. Yet Ream was embarrassed by Vydra in 2012/13 so much so that he didn't play again for a while and here we are with the same outcome two years on. Wheater is in reserve and was our strongest aerial defender?
In the championship there are going to be good games and bad. I note that Norwich and Fulham also disappointed their fans. Yet the odds favour their both making a strong showing. Bournemouth slamed Huddersfield and Robins has gone already. If we do as well again in Yorkshire we'll maybe see off more Yorkshire managers? easily could have last year?
I didn't significantly argue with this viewpoint at the time but I was taken to task at one point over the summer for ' sitting on the fence' or whilst having seen a season and even allowing some good DF results for having seen a whole lot more bad with time enough to have made my mind up re DF. As if not sitting on the fence equates to being either pro or anti DF and making up my mind to be in one camp or the other to be the object of all arguments. Well for me it isn't. It just isn't that simple.To be fair whitessince63 on here has regularly balanced or offset one-sided arguments and a fixed stance for the most part by saying things like 'I hope I am proved wrong' I get this and we probably all have likes or dislikes and are driven by emotion as well as rationality. I'd claim to be whitesince59 with a bit of 58' and that has been time enough to develop cynicism, fatalism and scepticism in the time honoured tradition of whites fans one and all. And yes much of what DF says and does is mightily frustrating and we are seeing and hearing what we have heard before.
BUT each season brings a new beginning, a new set of uncertainties, injuries and recoveries.( Wouldn't it be great if Stu H could get back??) It will bring some successes and some shambolic performances. And one failure does not predict what is to follow!If it did why would any of us go to matches or bother to post on here or elsewhere?
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Post by whitesince63 on Aug 11, 2014 17:40:37 GMT
As usual Andy I've read every eloquent word of that but to be honest I still can't make out where you stand on Freedman. Clearly I have no problem in that regard as you confirm though I seriously would like to be totally wrong about him but every week just seems to make me more sure I'm not. I do agree though that first games can often be misleading but sadly I don't think that's the case with this one, we were just awful and there isn't much sign we can improve greatly.
As for confusion over criticism for rotation policy and inconsistency against doing the same thing over and over again it's actually the continuous needless rotation that leads to inconsistency and the fact he continues to do it that is so annoying. How can you build a team that gels when you constantly chop and change. It's ridiculous and even more so when many of the changes were players who'd outperformed. Anyway, look I don't want this to turn into yet another boring tirade against Freedman, let's just see how things turn out then we don't have to guess.
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Post by joanna on Aug 11, 2014 18:56:58 GMT
Andy (quote): "It seems to me that DF's critics want it both ways. He is to be criticised for rotation policy and inconsistency yet at the same time for doing the same thing over and over to a fault. Which is it?"
That's pretty much what I thought you'd say, Andy. There are many infuriating faults that he repeats over and over whilst expecting a different outcome, and they have been listed ad nauseam here and elsewhere. Let's not go over them all again. As regards this particular policy (rotation), it's obvious that unnecessary tinkering cannot be a source of criticism after just one game this season(!)
However, LAST season his oft-repeated omission of players who'd just played well and were in the process of forming understanding and sound partnerships was precisely the kind of irrational, flawed and unsuccessful ideology that he repeated "over and over". Hard to feel settled, easy to feel demotivated by such a policy.
I know you don't agree and think he should tailor the team to counter the opposition, but would you not feel that he paid too much attention and deference to the opposition last year and not enough time to imposing ourselves on opponents?
Looking forward to your match reports in future.
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Post by megsontilidie on Aug 11, 2014 19:07:49 GMT
n the middle of a dreadful sequence of home defeats and Almunia gifted Beckford our winner. On neither occasion, from memory, did we match them for possession. Curiously we seem to have done so on Saturday. We also matched them in other key stats re shots but committed nearly twice as many fouls. Those are not the stats of the lifeless effort of 2012/13. OK only one stat matters and we were outdone by Deeney ( 24 goals 2013/14) and Vydra ( we all remember him in 2012/3). But it is all relative. Against other teams with a similar level of commitment we could surely have drawn or won- and yet would that have predicted the season any better? the possession was surprising at 49% overall. hovering around 40% in the first half though. i get the feeling Watford sat back once they felt they'd done enough. they do have an italian manager after all, so sitting on leads is not unlike them. (even though i dislike stereo-types that one is normally fairly apt. ) yes we mustn't over-react. i try to think like the bookies & not let heart over-rule head. no i don't think we'll go down. but after that display i think the bookies are right, they've got us sat at upper bottom half as per last seasons closing position. after the batterings of the PL and the uneveness, it would've been nice to feel like we had an outside shot at the play-offs. i'm not PL obsessed but i don't quite see how we went from being a bottom half PL side to a bottom half ch'ship side without any serious lasting stab at the top half. the chance of us "deviating from that mean/average" & having a serious run at the top 6 seems significantly lower than the threat of us having a bad run, and hovering perilously close to the relegation zone, like we have teetered at times in the last 2 seasons. i notice DF said our defending was uncharacteristcally bad. that was expanded on by the BN today. he referred to balls over the top in behind us. well he's right there ..mainly because we are normally camped on our own 18 yd line, so it isn't possible to play in behind. it was surprising that we were pushed up as a team so high. a bit too early to read anything into stat trends but here's a few i noticed anyway : www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/4312/Stages/9156/TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2014-2015we actually have the 3rd best shots per game in the lge 16. the worst Brum had 4 Lonergan only faced 5 shots ( on target)..he let 3 in. We had 4 shots on target. Brum had 0. Norwich 1 . for shots conceded - we're 2nd worst..with 18. Brum worst with 20. for tackles per game..we were joint worst. with 11. Watford were best with 29 in possession rankings, we're 13th out of 24 with 49% ish. Rotherham were worst with 33 %. for pass success % we're 17th with 74% . the worst was less than 60%. best with 87% Wolves ! Derby 85% in 2nd. a bit more about those poor tackling stats... only 1 player made MORE THAN 1 TACKLE for us..that was Medo with 6. for Watford 8 players made more than 1 tackle.. www.whoscored.com/Matches/829894/LiveStatistics/England-Championship-2014-2015-Watford-Bolton
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Post by andyl on Aug 12, 2014 15:42:51 GMT
1. whitessince63-- I'm not boxing myself into a verdict on Freedman. I've said in various posts that I think he has done some things well. He is patient with players, indulgent almost, is gradually building players in from the youth set up and seems to have a good eye for business management- v.important given the restraints he is working under. But I get annoyed with the inconsistency ( and indeed at times unintelligibility) of his post match utterances and press releases, find him bland of demeanour and like everyone else want to see BWFC play well tonight and tomorrow if not yesterday. So for me it's not a case of him being good or bad. I also am happy to allow for evolution, time and learning rather than setting his performance in tablets of stone. I said much the same of Megson in his 2nd year when really disliking him even if arguably some aspects of his management were effective. As everyone else I was taken in by Coyle and yearning for him to be popular and successful. Now that his reign is over I'm happy to have formed a final negative opinion. If then I'm sitting on the fence re Freedman- well I'm happier doing that than joining the tricoteuses on the forum or actively calling for his head
2. Joanna, All is in the choice of words. No to paying too much attention to oppositions, it's incumbent on all professional managers to be throroughly prepared in terms of strategies to counter particular oppositions but yes sometimes he was overly deferent- I'd rather a manager was more belligerent and intimidating to oppositions. In terms of putting more into our attacking play yes very much so. For an attacker I've found his offensive approaches to be unimaginative- for too long aiming at SKD or his ghost and having little or no flank play or midfield creativity- and it is possible to have that as well as two holding midfielders. But he is limited by budget and personnel.In terms of rotation or picking horses for courses I'm all for that and my criticism of DF , despite your consistent arguments to the contrary , is that he didn't rotate, surprise or use his squad meaningfully. Rather he played about at the margins, irritating you and those who think like you and not pleasing me and those who think like me. So he gave the impression of making change for change sake rather than as part of a plan and for me he was way too slow to make changes within games or over a run of games. I could almost always predict the team for any given match. and if I could so could his oppoonents
3. mtid- interestingly BWFC were third in the most shots table for the whole of 2013/4 champiosnhip too. All I can say is that just serves to underline how useless our attackers were for most of the season and how we so often failed to shoot from places when we could hope to score. And I'd add that we hardly every got to the bye line either.Major criticisms. I'm hoping it may be better this year but as your stats show all the Watford gmae give an indication of his more of the same.......but as is pointes out above it is only one game. If we get 50% possession over 46 games we will for sure do better than last year.
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Post by megsontilidie on Aug 12, 2014 16:33:47 GMT
1. whitessince63-- I'm not boxing myself into a verdict on Freedman. I've said in various posts that I think he has done some things well. He is patient with players, indulgent almost, is gradually building players in from the youth set up and seems to have a good eye for business management- v.important given the restraints he is working under. But I get annoyed with the inconsistency ( and indeed at times unintelligibility) of his post match utterances and press releases, find him bland of demeanour and like everyone else want to see BWFC play well tonight and tomorrow if not yesterday. So for me it's not a case of him being good or bad. I also am happy to allow for evolution, time and learning rather than setting his performance in tablets of stone. I said much the same of Megson in his 2nd year when really disliking him even if arguably some aspects of his management were effective. As everyone else I was taken in by Coyle and yearning for him to be popular and successful. Now that his reign is over I'm happy to have formed a final negative opinion. If then I'm sitting on the fence re Freedman- well I'm happier doing that than joining the tricoteuses on the forum or actively calling for his head 2. Joanna, All is in the choice of words. No to paying too much attention to opposit what baffles me with your fence sitting Andy, is that your match reports have to spit out opinions, and fast ones at that. little time to ponder. and generally over the long term, i've enjoyed them, as many of us have on here. so i'm surprised then that a cumulative opinion of all those put together does not then give you your ready made opinion of DF. yes, you can leave a little room for change but don't hold your breath for Fergie's classic transformation from 1989 boos & jeer to his status 10 or 20 yrs later. but you seem to be leaving a lot room for opinion forming in the future rather than to what has gone now. i suppose it must be the eternal optimism ( verging on madness lol ) of the hardened AWAY fan.
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Post by whitesince63 on Aug 12, 2014 17:26:06 GMT
I wouldn't want you to box yourself in Andy but Freedman's in his third season here now so surely you must have a view one way or another. I accept everything you say about the time needed to develop and bring on youth and also financial restraints he's been under but further than that I don't get any feeling he has the ability to pull us out of the dive we're unarguably in. For me I've seen few if any positives in anything he's done and please believe me I have tried. But each time I think I might be wrong he does something to convince me I'm not. His pre and post match utterings really infuriate me and how nice it would be if he stopped trying to talk things up and just accepted what all of us can see. If he was just honest, and I don't mean critical, and sincere I'm sure he would gain much more respect. However, I still think I've seen more than enough to not have to sit on any fences with you and sincerely believe he's bound to fail and the sooner he's put out of his and our misery the better.
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Post by andyl on Aug 12, 2014 18:02:29 GMT
'I suppose it must be the eternal optimism ( verging on madness lol ) of the hardened AWAY fan.' - Spot on!
Also I wonder if it's a point that press, media, the ever present indeed at times intrusive information and the behaviour of clubs in sacking managers at times recklessly and urgently has disposed us all to focus as much on management as on players. If I think back on what I was feeling through the reigns ( not all of them prosperous) of our managers during my fan time including for example Ridding, Armfield, Lofthouse Greaves, McGovern, Wright, Neal, Rioch, Todd ( McFarland) and BSA I don't think I ever gave a lot of thought to second guessing the managers and being critical of them or even exclusively holding them to account as we do now. If anything I was predisposed to trust and respect.
Looking back it was the Rioch era that excited our modern expectations as in hindsight briefly had the Greaves era of the 70s. BSA brought our greatest modern successes and status ( with Eddie D's money). We've been on a downward spiral since BSA's last season. It's hard to separate DF from context. No I'm not hoping for a SAF style progression from unknown and worrying to revered and knighted but I do think that he's on a par with most current championship managers. Fans are fickle. If we now win 10 on the bounce DF will be praised and critics will lose voice. If in 2016/7 a team featuring Kellett, Threlkeld, Wilkinson, White, Youngs,Vela Iliev, Clough etc storm the championship or even Div 1 it will be in part to his credit.
You are right, of course, to imply that post match commentaries are demanding of opinion and description and some of that is influenced by emotions, good and bad interspersed with a good dose of the irrational and the prejudiced- and I for one am certainly not immune to the influence of all of those
I do have an opinion of DF-- and have repeatedly posted it : good in certain aspects, less so in others; publicly unimpressive and much too slow to take decisions; not a great judge of player qualities nor even a good planner and strategist but a sensible pragmatist and, in the context he finds himself a safeish pair of hands who isn't going to waste money as some of his predecessors have and he has a very wise and experienced deputy. So exciting, transforming, intimidating , brilliant manager? I think not . But he has promise and may well improve. In general clubs who make the most progress do so with a long term approach- and it's in this I think that his strengths lie. That's my take on DF . I may be quite wrong or I may be proved right.
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Post by joanna on Aug 12, 2014 18:28:05 GMT
Thanks for the reply, Andy. There are two main areas where we differ irreconcilably: you would support tinkering/rotation to counter the opposition; I believe we should focus on giving the opposition headaches first and foremost; let THEM do the worrying, before trying to nullify. This attacking intent is so much more exciting for the crowd. When was the last time we were on the edge of our seats with anticipation at the prospect of one of our players being encouraged to run at defenders? With the defenders we've got, attack is the best form of defence. If we rotate too much, we will never breed consistency in partnerships where there is a need for trust and understanding. I think it is particularly in defence that pairings need time to develop and too much rotation works against mutual understanding and togetherness. Be brave enough to decide on your best team, provide a system to suit, and stick with it until injuries or loss of form kick in.
The second huge difference between us is that you claim you can "almost always predict the team for any given match". I find this almost incomprehensible! The number of times I've rolled up for a game, fully expecting the men who I saw play well the week before to be trotting out at 3pm, only to find that they've been benched or dropped altogether! Apart from feeling hugely frustrated, almost cheated, myself, imagine what it does for the player slighted like this; confidence and morale shattered in a flash. To me, this is why Dougie will never breed a successful side where spirit to fight for the cause is paramount. He exudes inertia from the sidelines too,
A third, slightly less crucial difference is that I look more at performance level, whereas you seem to be more concerned with the actual result, (correct me if I'm wrong about this) but there have been many games in the last two seasons, especially during our good runs, where we have been incredibly lucky to come away with points and I find it hard to rejoice in these circumstances.
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Post by andyl on Aug 12, 2014 22:23:03 GMT
My view is that a 46 game season with additional cup games played at 2014 intensity obliges full squad usage. For me the notion of a best eleven is anachronistic. Injuries and suspensions will usually have an impact but overuse of players makes them stale ineffective and useless especially at the season's end when it counts. So squad rotation is a must and I do not accept that players do not understand this. Yes if they are left out for sustained spells they will get disgruntled but then maybe they deserve to be? Within this necessary squad usage I believe it is sensible to plan for a sequence of games and devise bespoke strategies for specific oppositions
I do not approve of tinkering. It's a pejorative word and implies capricious and ill thought out change on a whim. Overall DF's record is of stronger second halves to his two seasons than first and only one has been a full season. That is good.
But our common ground, Joanna lies in that we both agree that he doesn't place enough emphasis on forward momentum! And less obvious is another area of agreement which is that he doesn't use his squad as well as he could. I'd like to see players rested or omitted for planned games. I'd like him to recognise when as last year Bogdan was out of form. As it was he responded to injury only too late but by circumstance rather than design Bogdan re emerged much stronger. You feel his changes are capricious tinkering but it boils down to a similar criticism re a lack of short term planning aptitude ; players pop in and out and it disrupts continuity- that's a fair point . I am observing that players aren't popped out when they should be.
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Post by andyl on Aug 12, 2014 22:26:22 GMT
Re your other point re prediction I do claim to have been able to predict teams with a fair degree of accuracy. And that's because he persists with out of form players for way too long
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Post by joanna on Aug 13, 2014 9:42:14 GMT
I bet you didn't predict last might's team, Andy!---especially after our hero announced that he wouldn't be making wholesale changes. Gosh,I bet that threw Bury off their stride!
This ever-so cunning ploy by our master tactician was, believe it or not, bettered by his decision to pair Trotter, our very own Usain Bolt, with the super-effective Pratley in a midfield which Bury simply overran.
Do we not practise pass-and-move, the simple one-two? Just what is practised in training? Very hard to discern any method or improvement in skill-levels. This degeneration in our skills and on-field demeanour must be arrested now!
I note there were ironic cheers near the end when, after two years, DF finally realised that all 10 men back at corners etc is not necessarily the best tactic.
I mentioned above that performance rather than the result is the key indicator of the direction the club is heading. There were so many lucky wins in the improved runs of results achieved in the last two seasons. Last night's was a perfect example. Experimental selection maybe, but being overrun by Bury, the Watford debacle and pre-season games should have flashed clear warning lights to everyone that the club is heading for disaster under this regime, and that we are even worse than last year. Act now before it is too late!
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