Post by realtrottersforever on Feb 24, 2022 13:35:15 GMT
i'm going earlier with this thread, as probably more spare time today than Fri or Sat.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
if you click on the matches tab, you see the Super computer has this one as 46% Mk, 28% Bolton & 26% draw.
I wouldn't go quite that far myself. possibly they are slight favourites.
we need to figure out exactly what we are away from home. fewer clean sheets than at home, and fewer 2+goals scored.
but i get the feeling seeing as MK are a very footballing side, this might be a game more like our Oxford away performance.
www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/8/Seasons/8620/Stages/19795/TeamStatistics/England-League-One-2021-2022
Mk are ranked top for possession. 58.6% . we're 4th. even bigger margin on pass success -again they are 1st . 81.7% . to our 73.4.
surprised me, as they did seem to be moving away from the Russell Martin influence of last season of possession obsession.
for aerials won, they are ranked last. we are 2 places up in 22nd.
when you take out the top 2, no other team can match them for most wins . 18 , and joint fewest defeats 7 ( sheff wed also on 7 ).
in comparison, we've got 15 wins and 13 defeats.
their goal diff is 10 better than ours. scored same as us 55 goals, but conceded 10 fewer.
form wise, they are in good nick. just 1 defeat since mid December, and strangely that was a 1-0 loss to Donny.
goals have been a bit hard to come by recently. 5 of their last 8 games, they only managed 1 or 0.
struggled to win by more than a 1 goal margin. last game vs Charlton they did manage it, but previous time was way back in late Nov.
even without checking the stats, you know we've done way better than that.
the full check reveals > since mid Jan. we've beat Ipswich , Cambridge, Sunderland, Wimbledon & Lincoln by at least a 2 goal margin.
we haven't really shown that dominance away. our 2 away wins with margins were Ipswich 5-2, and Charlton 4-1. no others, not even since we've had the new Bolton mark 2.0 team- since Jan tfr window.
it's the same with losing. yeah, you still might get 0 points, but it's pride and confidence thing. if you get beat 1-0, its better than getting battered . & if you're winning by a margin
it's showing your quality and giving you a buffer in case an individual does make a random error.
clean sheets. we've only got 2 away clean sheets. in 17 games. that is poor & needs to improve quickstyle or I'd doubt we'd make play offs. in comparison with other promotion/play off rivals
Rotherham have 11 , Pompey 7, ipswich 6, wycombe 6, wigan 5, sheff wed 5. oxford 3, sunderland 2.
home clean sheets. Mk & us with a whole raft of teams on 7. sheff wed & pompey edging the best records on the basis of fewer games played.
players to look out for :
Scott Twine 13 goals . 9 assists. useful with free kicks. likes to shoot from distance. good vision to slip a pass through. highly strung ( twine - i'm here all week ).
he scored their 2nd in the 3-3 reverse fixture. and played pretty well for Newport in prev seasons opening fixture IIRC.
Jamie Cumming is their excellent keeper. on loan from Chelsea. one of the best in the Div for me.
Mo Eisa is their 2nd topscorer on 8. he scored the first against us in the 3-3- in vid above.
a whole load of players you're sort of aware of , or on loan from top half PL clubs. ex-chelsea Mceachran, Connor Wickham..scored against his old club Sunderland recently.
Troy Parrot ( likes to play on the shoulder ) on loan from spurs. Corbeanu- on loan from Wolves.
Kesler hayden - on loan from villa. Conor Coventry on loan from west ham. etc i'm guessing they are paying out some of the better wages in this Div with all that lot.
prediction :
tough one. i'll go 1-1. certainly not impossible we'd could do another Oxford type performance on them . but this could be a shade even tougher than that. Oxford had more obvious defensive weaknesses to target
and fewer recognisable names. small margins either way. a real strong test for our away form. we've probably got a few more obvious goals in us, but bit shakier at the back on away days.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
if you click on the matches tab, you see the Super computer has this one as 46% Mk, 28% Bolton & 26% draw.
I wouldn't go quite that far myself. possibly they are slight favourites.
we need to figure out exactly what we are away from home. fewer clean sheets than at home, and fewer 2+goals scored.
but i get the feeling seeing as MK are a very footballing side, this might be a game more like our Oxford away performance.
www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/8/Seasons/8620/Stages/19795/TeamStatistics/England-League-One-2021-2022
Mk are ranked top for possession. 58.6% . we're 4th. even bigger margin on pass success -again they are 1st . 81.7% . to our 73.4.
surprised me, as they did seem to be moving away from the Russell Martin influence of last season of possession obsession.
for aerials won, they are ranked last. we are 2 places up in 22nd.
when you take out the top 2, no other team can match them for most wins . 18 , and joint fewest defeats 7 ( sheff wed also on 7 ).
in comparison, we've got 15 wins and 13 defeats.
their goal diff is 10 better than ours. scored same as us 55 goals, but conceded 10 fewer.
form wise, they are in good nick. just 1 defeat since mid December, and strangely that was a 1-0 loss to Donny.
goals have been a bit hard to come by recently. 5 of their last 8 games, they only managed 1 or 0.
struggled to win by more than a 1 goal margin. last game vs Charlton they did manage it, but previous time was way back in late Nov.
even without checking the stats, you know we've done way better than that.
the full check reveals > since mid Jan. we've beat Ipswich , Cambridge, Sunderland, Wimbledon & Lincoln by at least a 2 goal margin.
we haven't really shown that dominance away. our 2 away wins with margins were Ipswich 5-2, and Charlton 4-1. no others, not even since we've had the new Bolton mark 2.0 team- since Jan tfr window.
it's the same with losing. yeah, you still might get 0 points, but it's pride and confidence thing. if you get beat 1-0, its better than getting battered . & if you're winning by a margin
it's showing your quality and giving you a buffer in case an individual does make a random error.
clean sheets. we've only got 2 away clean sheets. in 17 games. that is poor & needs to improve quickstyle or I'd doubt we'd make play offs. in comparison with other promotion/play off rivals
Rotherham have 11 , Pompey 7, ipswich 6, wycombe 6, wigan 5, sheff wed 5. oxford 3, sunderland 2.
home clean sheets. Mk & us with a whole raft of teams on 7. sheff wed & pompey edging the best records on the basis of fewer games played.
players to look out for :
Scott Twine 13 goals . 9 assists. useful with free kicks. likes to shoot from distance. good vision to slip a pass through. highly strung ( twine - i'm here all week ).
he scored their 2nd in the 3-3 reverse fixture. and played pretty well for Newport in prev seasons opening fixture IIRC.
Jamie Cumming is their excellent keeper. on loan from Chelsea. one of the best in the Div for me.
Mo Eisa is their 2nd topscorer on 8. he scored the first against us in the 3-3- in vid above.
a whole load of players you're sort of aware of , or on loan from top half PL clubs. ex-chelsea Mceachran, Connor Wickham..scored against his old club Sunderland recently.
Troy Parrot ( likes to play on the shoulder ) on loan from spurs. Corbeanu- on loan from Wolves.
Kesler hayden - on loan from villa. Conor Coventry on loan from west ham. etc i'm guessing they are paying out some of the better wages in this Div with all that lot.
prediction :
tough one. i'll go 1-1. certainly not impossible we'd could do another Oxford type performance on them . but this could be a shade even tougher than that. Oxford had more obvious defensive weaknesses to target
and fewer recognisable names. small margins either way. a real strong test for our away form. we've probably got a few more obvious goals in us, but bit shakier at the back on away days.