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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 7, 2024 21:57:56 GMT
theanalyst.com/eu/2024/08/league-one-2024-25-opta-predictionsi mentioned last week in the Exeter thread about the opta pre-season predictions, with us finishing top. Wrexham didn't have 0.01% chance of finishing in the top 3. it'll be interesting to see if and when they revise things. Wrexham won today and now 9 pts ahead of us. credit to opta their site has much better lge 1 coverage this year. great bank of player data here. stuff on passing, keepers, defending and attacking. as well as team data. theanalyst.com/eu/competition/english-league-one/stats?utm_source=website&utm_medium=topbanner&utm_campaign=embedfun fact for you. Dion has had more shots than anyone in the div so far, with 14, so rumours of his demise seem a little premature. i really like the section on "carrying" . anyone can pass back and square not under pressure. being able to carry it and dribble is where the skill of a player really comes out. strangely, i give Santos enough clog, but this is one of his big strengths, but we rarely see him use it. theanalyst.com/eu/competition/english-league-one/tablelove this addition too. current table but with predicted finishes too, with % chances of promotion, play offs & relegation.
it's really made up for the loss of the old supercomputer which was this link below. which got binned May/June '23projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/it's got rankings as well, which do make a bit of sense in the long run. i.e if you beat a side better than you, you gain more credit than just beat the sides below you etc. & it's got fixture predictions too ( not currently updated but i did see todays game predictions before today so they do update them for each matchday ). even though i like this stuff, i don't agree with all of it. the over-rating of Lincoln is just bizarre. still got them 3rd in final predictions with 76 pt's. these sort of things tend to mirror the bookies a fair bit, but on that aspect they differ massively. bet365 don't even have them in the top 10, to be promoted. and i'd definitely support their view. they've got Wrexham in 10th still..despite this having been updated today 5 hrs ago , and Wrexham's win. i don't know whether they can keep it up. the bookies have them as 2nd faves to finish in the top 2 after Brum. 10/3. ( Brum 4/9 ) we're 4th in that table at 9/4. i've mentioned before these opta predictions massively over-favour team that keep high possession. all based on xg etc. but massive flaw in that. all that is purely based on where you take a shot at goal on the pitch from. i've said it before , but it stands repeating. opposition players don't matter. so in theory you could take a shot at goal 8 yd's out with 7 defenders in tightly front of you. you have almost no chance of scoring. yet take that shot from 12 yds out with only keeper to beat, huge chance of scoring..and your xg will be less . and this is what happens with dimwits like Evatt. slow build up...opposition defence have all time in world to get back. strikers get chances with massed defences in front of them. try to walk ball into net. xg goes thru the roof. you are close to goal. but it's all meaningless. Evatt sits their staring at that post-match stats with his analysts patting himself on the back for the high xg. same old mantra's on repeat..dominated the game etc unable to understand why the dogma ain't producing the expected results. copy what the big boys do...City etc. should the local corner shop copy what Tesco's do. no, do what's best for them. introduce a club card to the local corner shop etc etc.
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Post by andyl on Sept 8, 2024 16:25:41 GMT
Thanks for this, rtf. I have had a bit of fun looking through. It is baffling ( or at least it baffles me) to get to grips with and I incline to agree with the view that managers spend too much time on it, with the less intelligent ones over-referencing it.
For BWFC I'd make the following comments- if any erros apologies but I'm reliant on ageing memory
1. Yes Dion has had the most 'shots' at least until the weekend when Barnsley's Adam Phillips must have had a lot. But the other part of it is that Dion's conversion rate is very close to the worst ( 3%)
2. Bolton have high possession and successful pass rates. I expected them to standout for playing backwards but that doesn't really show up
3. Dacres Cogley has a lowish number of ball carries but each one is quite long--these will be his cross field carries. I remain of the view that his failure to overlap and go for bye-lines is the biggest single reason we are behind where on some of the other stats we should be
4. Johnston has a really low number of successful aerial duels- the stats have him beaten more than 50% of the time ( Schon fares similarly) so small wonder we are vulnerable at that left post
5. Santos has a good number of carries but they are all short underlining your point rtf--when he first game more of us argued his case for midfield because he offered a cavalier forceful run forward most games. Now it's as if the White Witch has frozen him in ice. He wins most of his aerial duels but has 27, I think, clearances to his name which underlines how often he just heads it anywhere or boots it anywhere- a point I've only really alluded to when observing that he cannot jump and head a ball, only get a head on it , Zatlike.
6. Collins has a better pass completion rate than I thought and a lot of his passes are progressive- his chance creation stat is our best although McAtee has more (3) assists
7. Baxter's stats are only middling- at this stage last year I suspect but cannot prove that they were better
8. Thomason's stats are quite good but his ball carrying is only for short distances, Sheehan's passing is the most progressive and has a good accuracy rate when in the final third but considering how integral he is to all forward movement this is unsurprising and maybe the stats over rate his contribution- three chances only created
It's too early for meaningful table predictions. I googled for a definition of XG but only found a Japanese K -Pop group. XG stats however yielded a spirited attempt to conjure up an idea of how liley a team is to score. I agree, rtf, that it doesn't seem to factor in what the oppoosition were doing when or in what circumstances Dion say took his missing shots, which to the naked eye encompass falling over in front of an open goal, prematurely fired half turn shots and some bona fide efforts. If xg could somehow measure when we felt the shot was timely, reasonable and well executed maybe the stat would mean more.
For my part I will continue to bawl 'shoot' when countless opportunities are declined and 'go forward' on more occasion than can be counted. Both require an exercise of judgment by players and a culture set by the manager, none of which argubaly betrays its truths in the stats?
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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 8, 2024 21:21:13 GMT
you've certainly made good use of it Andy, so far from the look of that post ! . hadn't really paid much attention to our individual player stats. as you say they'll make more sense further into the season comparing them to the top ranked guys for all the important markers . I did notice Baxter's stat. save % is a stat i've liked for a while. seems about as fair , true & complete a stat as you can get for keepers. top guys have 85% + saves made. Baxter
well down at barely above 60%. I agree a year ago, he'd be well up on that. i'm sure he'll get it back sooner or later.
in the team stats, pass direction is a new stat for me. never seen it quoted anywhere. i expected far more backwards by us. but % forwards is fairly low. although strangely Brum are lower still.
one player i did notice in the player "Carry " stats is Ronan Darcy. ranked 5th for total distance "carried" . always used to like him do that, and it was frustrating in Lge 2 in IE's early days when the team was crying out for a player to do that , that he didn't get the opportunity. he may or may not been quite up to it, but it would have been nice to see him get more chances. he'd shown much promise in Lge 1 in a failing team ( under K Hill ? ) . he'd go on these little short dribbles/carries and maybe give it, and get it back. commit opponents & open up space. etc etc Crawley are 2nd only to Brum for total passes made. and top for highest backward %. almost 20% compared to our 14%. in the team miscell section, you'll see they've conceded 5 errors leading to shots, with 1 goal conceded. think i remember some of those from the highlights... with a few contenders for my risky passing out thread.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 14, 2024 20:31:38 GMT
theanalyst.com/eu/competition/english-league-one/tablein the predicted season-end table, Opta still got us to finish 5th on 71 pt's but margins are very fine. Wrexham down in 10th but on 69 pts. Brum top with 84 pts (83.83 ) Huddersfield 2nd on 81 pts. that was what was such a killer about today. it's a 6 pointer. compound our bad start and hand a promotion rival, 3 away pt's and a nice goal diff boost too. still baffled by their tip of Lincoln for 3rd. i'll keep attacking that one all season. 76.50 pts. bookies still, like me, don't favour them . only 12th in bet365 betting to be promoted.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 17, 2024 9:46:37 GMT
predicted lge table now got us to finish 9th with 68 pts . Wrexham despite their loss last night, now in 8th theanalyst.com/eu/competition/english-league-one/tabletop 6 now deemed to get 70.5 +. so small margins beginning to develop after the previous post which had it very tight from 5th down to 10th. they've still got their barmy prediction of Lincoln in 3rd with 77 pts !?! unhinged surely. |
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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 17, 2024 14:05:53 GMT
in terms of player stats, bit of an update on topscorers. Jay Stansfield, Brum £15 million pound man got off the mark with 2 last night. lge 1 record fee for him. smashed prev record which was 4mill for Will Grigg. pd by Sunderland to Wigan. www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/8/Seasons/10342/Stages/23428/PlayerStatistics/England-League-One-2024-2025topscorers on 4 in the Div are : Alfie may - brum Adam phillips- barnsley Jack Marriot- wrexham Lee gregory- mansfield. his 2nd at the wkend was a bit special ! Louie Barry - stockport too many to mention on 3 goals... just a few selected. Ben wiles / josh koroma- both Hudd ben house- lincoln poku- p'boro k wootton -stockport top assisters. both have 3. Odoh of Posh lee evans - bl'pool interesting name further down that list with 2 assists & 1 goal... Sadlier at Wycombe ! |
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Post by riochforthereebok on Sept 17, 2024 15:00:03 GMT
predicted lge table now got us to finish 9th with 68 pts . Wrexham despite their loss last night, now in 8th theanalyst.com/eu/competition/english-league-one/tabletop 6 now deemed to get 70.5 +. so small margins beginning to develop after the previous post which had it very tight from 5th down to 10th. they've still got their barmy prediction of Lincoln in 3rd with 77 pts !?! unhinged surely. How accurate have these proved to be in the past RtF?? (The anyalist.com) 70.5 to get into top 6 is quite low given that Barnsley had 76 last season don’t you think!! And interesting that we don’t even feature in any of your analysis of the top scorers so far and also probably don’t look likely to either Who will score for us, that’s the burning question  As we have been royally found out, it seems we only get wins in the ton pot comp and not the league Hands up, who actually wants us to lose v Reading just so we can all back up our moans against Evatt and the board?? I know I do |
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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 17, 2024 19:27:18 GMT
well it is Opta so good reputation. but these models for Lge 1 are new this season, so time will tell.
i'd prefer proper bookies info, but they don't show us all their figures, whereas this should be that insight into the bookies figures.
it could well be a lower total for play offs, as looking at the top 14 teams ( projected ) i couldn't rule anyone out of plays offs so they could all end up taking points off each other. the 2 good promoted sides ( wrexham & stockport ) have made it stronger than last season, and we don't have Reading and Wigan in the mess they were in off field last season so they're in the mix too. it was a rare one last yr, with none of the relegated sides from the ch'ship making the top 7... blackpool best of the bunch in 8th. all 3 this time, Brum, Hudd and Roth look like strong contenders this time.
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Post by whitesince63 on Sept 18, 2024 10:09:11 GMT
well it is Opta so good reputation. but these models for Lge 1 are new this season, so time will tell. i'd prefer proper bookies info, but they don't show us all their figures, whereas this should be that insight into the bookies figures. it could well be a lower total for play offs, as looking at the top 14 teams ( projected ) i couldn't rule anyone out of plays offs so they could all end up taking points off each other. the 2 good promoted sides ( wrexham & stockport ) have made it stronger than last season, and we don't have Reading and Wigan in the mess they were in off field last season so they're in the mix too. it was a rare one last yr, with none of the relegated sides from the ch'ship making the top 7... blackpool best of the bunch in 8th. all 3 this time, Brum, Hudd and Roth look like strong contenders this time. I actually see this as a big positive for us rtf because we know that all these teams will take points off each other so if we do pick up we could quickly make up ground. I don’t think the high points totals of the last few seasons will be reached this year as more points are shared but obviously it’s critical for us not to be losing points to the top teams as we have so regularly done. Despite our poor start a good win against Reading at the weekend should act as a pick me up and we can go on from there. 😁 |
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Post by riochforthereebok on Sept 18, 2024 15:14:28 GMT
well it is Opta so good reputation. but these models for Lge 1 are new this season, so time will tell. i'd prefer proper bookies info, but they don't show us all their figures, whereas this should be that insight into the bookies figures. it could well be a lower total for play offs, as looking at the top 14 teams ( projected ) i couldn't rule anyone out of plays offs so they could all end up taking points off each other. the 2 good promoted sides ( wrexham & stockport ) have made it stronger than last season, and we don't have Reading and Wigan in the mess they were in off field last season so they're in the mix too. it was a rare one last yr, with none of the relegated sides from the ch'ship making the top 7... blackpool best of the bunch in 8th. all 3 this time, Brum, Hudd and Roth look like strong contenders this time. I actually see this as a big positive for us rtf because we know that all these teams will take points off each other so if we do pick up we could quickly make up ground. I don’t think the high points totals of the last few seasons will be reached this year as more points are shared but obviously it’s critical for us not to be losing points to the top teams as we have so regularly done. Despite our poor start a good win against Reading at the weekend should act as a pick me up and we can go on from there. 😁 We won’t beat Reading W63, I’m putting my mortgage on that |
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Post by realtrottersforever on Sept 30, 2024 10:49:24 GMT
theanalyst.com/eu/competition/english-league-one/tablewe're now up to 5th on 73.5 pts. predicted position in end of season table. they're going even more barmy with Lincoln. they've got them 2nd now. on 78.5 pts. !? Bookies got them 10th to be promoted. i'm still with the bookies. x.com/LincolnCity_FC/status/1840081539033350416although the EFL hi-lites did quote an impressive stat. 13 unbeaten away from home. a club record. surely you can be decent at home, so combine with decent away form and you've got half a chance. i'm still saying no. play off chance . yes. auto's . no. where's the squad depth ? i don't even see where the key players are ? they certainly don't fancy Mansfield. 16th with just 60 pts ?. i wouldn't go quite that low, but plays offs seems unlikely. bookies agree. bookies currently with 6 teams odds on for plays offs. brum- massive odds on. 1/100 ! then wrexham, then us 4/6, hudd, stockport, blackpool. opta site don't like Stockport at all. they've got them in 15th with 61 pts. it's gonna be interesting see who gets this right. someone's getting it badly wrong. get your own tips on here if you want and we'll see who's right. Stockport have wavered a bit lately. chance of play offs but seem like an outsider. to be relegated ( per bookies ) Crawley 3rd faves. shrews 2nd fave. camb faves. 1-3 on ! . Burton also odds on. Northampton 6th most likely. hence, a very winnable set of fixtures for us against these lot.
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Post by riochforthereebok on Sept 30, 2024 12:33:55 GMT
Ok then RTF, my predictions
Birmingham 92
Blackpool 89
Wrexham 84
Peterborough 78
Lincoln 78
Charlton 77
Barnsley 75
Bolton 74 😳😬😳😬
For the drop
Crawley
Shrewsbury
Cambridge
Bristol Rovers
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Post by realtrottersforever on Oct 2, 2024 10:29:14 GMT
only 2 pt's off the play off spots already. my prediction on the Northampton thread, that we'd probably be top 4 or 6 by time we play Brum looking like it might happen even earlier than expected. mind you last night a lot of top half sides played each other.... Brum v hudd, blackpool v lincoln, barnsley v wycombe. even wigan v pboro. they all can't win so you catch up. promoted sides doing pretty well again. 3 of them in the top 5 in the table. Wrexham slipped up, but Stevenage is a tougher place to play than you think. they and Wigan now top of the clean sheets table with 6. we're on 2 btw. P'boro and Cambridge rock bottom with 0 . Pboro v wigan last night was the old immoveable object v irresistible force with wigans goal-shy attack against p'boro leaky def... and vice versa really. pboro very useful attack against wigan's stingy def. P'boro leak-fest continued. 3-0 Wigan. Lincoln's unbeaten away record ( as mentioned in a post above ) was in severe danger at in form Blackpool. salvaged it at the death 90+5. 1-1. now 14 unbeaten away from home. next up for us Shrews. got beat 2-0 by Stockport at home. 0 shots on target for Shrews. 8 for Stockport. looking like another banked win for us. www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/c4g5kk7pexvt#MatchStats |
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Post by realtrottersforever on Oct 3, 2024 11:15:30 GMT
topscorers update :
the importance of having top strikers to get up into that top 6. very few teams up there without one.
Lee Gregory of Mansfield top of the show with 6. hence their lofty position
then a whole host on 5
Dion 5. he was 14/1 to be lge topscorer so i had a bit of that. as good a chance as anyone.
Alfie May was fave.. 5/2. they may end up sharing their goals out more.
adam philips - barnsley 5
alfie may - 5 ( brum )
k joseph 5 blackpool ( not familiar with this guy )
Louie barry - 5 stockport
poku 5 posh. we know their attack is v good despite the ropey defence.
into the 4's now.
Wootton-4 stockport - with another contender
marriot 4. wrexham . mullin not off the mark yet for them. was inj'd i think. slowly coming back.
koroma - hudd .4 .
JCH of Roth. a notable absence from the list. bookies still rate him as 14/1. he's on 3, as is Stansfield.
most shots. :
koroma 27
kelman 26- orient
poku 24
most shots on target :
kelman 14
dion/ poku 12 .
assists : a few bwfc links in here .
lee evans 4. blackpool
sheehan 3
morley ( wyc ) 3
sadlier 3 ( wyc )
odoh 3 posh
bayliss 3 lincoln
mageniss 3 exeter
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Post by riochforthereebok on Oct 3, 2024 13:38:21 GMT
Always look forward to stats as I’m a stats man
I’ve noticed that Sadlier and Morley are doing very well at Wycombe RTF
It’s good to look at who’s bagging the goals and as expected, the usual suspects.
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