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Post by chip on Mar 5, 2022 16:56:47 GMT
3-0 YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS COYWM
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Post by chip on Mar 5, 2022 17:06:50 GMT
Easy win in the end one game at a time onwards and upwards COYWM
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Post by realtrottersforever on Mar 5, 2022 17:27:36 GMT
comfy win. didn't see it. listened on radio, so again can't comment too much on specifics. seen the 1st 2 goals on twitter. good strike from Morley.
9 shots on target to their 1. that's more like it, but i always felt these 3 away games against the 3 sides in the bottom 4 were very winnable. the problem with little room for error is no silly slips up at home. home form is very good, but it's almost normal to make the odd mistake in one of them.
quick round up of other relevant results from play off rivals etc.
Sunderland drop points again. had majority of the game. 8 shots on target away at Charlton but ended 0-0. charlton had 0 shots on target and just 1 corner. wouldn't be surprised if their manager got the tin tack.
Cheltenham win 4-0- 2 more for Alfie May. that away trip will be quite tricky. Wycombe won 3-1 at Crewe. 1 for Vokes. Ipswich 2-0 at Fleetwood. sheff wed lose 3-1 at Lincoln. funny one sheff wed. normally defence is their strength. they're one of the few top teams who lack a scorer at the top end of the goal charts, but generally seem to get the job done as a team. Oxford 4-1. goals still flowing for them. 1 for Matty Taylor. Plymouth beat Morecambe 2-0. 1 for Ryan Hardie. Pompey beat Accrington 4-0 despite only having 4 shots on target . that extra goal diff seems to have put them above us. and they have 2 games in hand. Rotherham lose to MK. MK down to 10 men for over 60 mins. 1 for Mo Eisa there. Wigan beat Wimbledon 1-0. 1 for Will Keane puts him on 17 lge goals.
overall, the odd slip up from our rivals. but not many. makes head to heads very important with the likes of Pompey, Sheff wed, and Plymouth. but all those at home and quite winnable.
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Post by davidm on Mar 5, 2022 17:31:44 GMT
A very very good performance.
Only complaint is that we should have scored many more – it could easily have been 6 or 7-0.
We set off well but also conceded a few too many throw ins. Echoes of Burton came back as Gillingham hurled the ball in and it petrified me. We somehow survived these throws and totally dominated possession.
Charles missed 2 glaring chances and Fossey shot straight at the keeper twice as we were all over Gillingham.
When it looked like we would never score, Morley curled in a lovely shot from the edge of the box – a truly excellent shot.
We continued to dominate and had loads of possession and loads of half chances but we went in 1-0 up. The only problem that Gillingham had given us and, in fact, their only tactic was to hurl high balls into the box. They were scary but we coped well.
Second half, we continued to dominate, Gillingham continued to kick us until the referee eventually booked one of theirs who then a few minutes later dragged Bodvarsson down when we would have been away 3 onto 1. A second booking and a red card.
We totally dominated and eventually got a deserved second when Bodvarsson got through. His shot was blocked by the keeper and John followed up to score.
We got a good third when again Bodvarsson broke through and curled the ball past the keeper with the outside of his boot.
We had many more half chances, Bakayoko missed an easy chance and Fossey created numerous half chances.
A totally excellent performance – roll on Tuesday.
Marks:-
Trafford - 7 Just nothing to do. Some excellent throw outs.
Aimson - 7 Played well. His passing is not up to Jones’ standard but he did well apart from one bad mistake in the first half when he managed to give the ball away twice in the same move.
Santos - 8 Stood up well to Gillingham’s only tactic of launching high balls into the box. Passed very well. Only mistake was when he got cocky in the first half and failed to win a free kick and got us in trouble.
Johnston - 7 Good. Some decent passes out of defence and like Aimson and Santos stood up to the barrage of high balls.
Fossey - 8 Loads of forward runs from him which made many half chances. Had 2 shots in the first half.
John - 7 No problems for him. Didn’t attack as much as Fossey but scored. A good performance.
Morley - 9 Brilliant goal settled us down as we had dominated but not scored up to them. Good passing throughout.
Williams - 7 Much better than recently. Dominated midfield. Booked.
Afolayan - 7 Got kicked every time he ran with the ball. Obviously a tactic from them. Persevered and did well.
Bodvarsson - 8 Very good finish with a lovely goal. Very busy. Made loads of space and passed the ball well.
Charles - 7 Missed 2 absolute sitters in the first half but kept going in his normal way.
Sadlier - 7 Some nice passes in his short spell on
Bakayoko - 6 If he had a right foot, he would have scored. Set up by Bodvarsson, it was a simple chance on his right foot but he chose to try a much more difficult attempt on his left and missed.
Thomason
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Post by Pedro on Mar 5, 2022 17:45:42 GMT
Some great one-touch work today. I felt sorry for Dion missing twice and after some Jay Jay like dribbling. My goodness, he must cover some miles and be the fittest player out there. We still have not worked out how to take advantage of a 10 man team though. Jon Dadi getting fitter - some lovely moves off the ball and a neat toe poke for his goal. Beautiful strike by Morley. Hope we see a few more of those.
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Post by davidm on Mar 5, 2022 17:46:20 GMT
Have to question why there are so many medical emergencies in the crowds these days I think that it is something to do with a change in the rules in that the home team’s medical staff are now responsible for the well being of everyone in the ground so if there is a problem, the match must stop to allow the home physios to get to the problem. I think that there were as many emergencies in the past but years ago St Johns Ambulance did that duty and the game carried on but now I think it is the responsibility of the home team.
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Post by OohMac on Mar 5, 2022 19:07:43 GMT
I like being right but happy to be wrong. I thought it would be tight with the match possibly being decided by the want of a team fighting for survival being greater than a teams hope for an outside play off spot.
But sounds like we all turned up today. Still a tall order. Said 8 from 12 before MK. 8 from 11 now its 7/10. Which sounds a lot but again break it down and win 4 from next 5 and then 3 in the final run in. So hard yes but doable.
Would say draws are no good(unless were against rivals maybe and are a goal down) if its 0-0 or 1-1 just go all out for the win.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Mar 5, 2022 21:11:08 GMT
update on the play off maths. Sheff wed currently in the last spot. 61 pts from 35. project on to 46 games gives 80 pts. not dropping to my predicted target of 74 pts which has been enough EVERY single one of the last 10 yrs. got to think it'll meet it half way and drop to 78 at least , maybe even 77. we've got 54 pts in 36 games. maximum pts we can achieve is win our next 10. 30 pts. 84 pt max. highly unlikely to get that of course. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/the supercomputer has our predicted final pts as 72, but that was BEFORE todays game. from our 84 pt possible total. even if we lost 2, we'd still achieve 78 pt's and i'd be 90% sure that'd be enough. you could probably even afford to lose 2 and draw 2, the main thing is not to lose the head to head clashes...Pompey, Plymouth, Sheff wed. another way to estimate our final pt's is to take our current pt's and look at our recent form in the last 10 games, and work it out that way. current pt's 54 pts. www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england3over the last 10 games, we 've achieved 2.2 ppg - 22 pt's. over last 12. 28 pts. 2.33 ppg. even if we go with the lowest. 2.2ppg gives us 22 pt's. add that to 54. . gives us a predicted final pt's of 76 pts. 2 more than the 10 yr average of 74. or just predict the indiv results : Morecambe h- 3pts PLymouth-h - 3pts Crewe-a 3 pts Pompey- h = 1 pts wigan - a- 1 pt sheff wed- h - 3 seriously big game ! Donny a 3 accy stan h 3 cheltenham- a 1 fleetwood h 3 24pts there. gives us 78 pts. a little bit of slack built in to keep it real.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Mar 5, 2022 23:11:49 GMT
bit of a goals & assists update. we've now scored 58 lge goals. the 7th best total in the Div. just 1 behind Wigan and Mk . ( though Wigan do have 2 games in hand ). 58 is better than the likes of Plymouth, sheff wed, ipswich & pompey. ( some of those have games in hand, but Pompey are 8 goals behind us )
scorers :
Dapo 11 Baka 7 Dion 6 Doyle 5 K LEE 5 Sheehan 4 Sarce 3 John 3 Kacha 2 Johnston 2 Bod 2 Morley 1 Baptiste 1 Thomason 1 Sadlier 1 Fossey 1 Aimson 1 Amaechi 1
18 diff scorers.
ones who haven't scored yet & could have easily done so : Santos, Dempsey, Jones , Isgrove ,
assists :
Fossey 5 John 5 K Lee 5 Morley 4 Dion 3 Kacha 3 Dapo 3 Jones 3 mj 2 bAKA 1 Sarce 1 Doyle 1 Johnston 1 Trafford 1 Sheehan 1 Dempsey 1 Gordon 1
17 diff assisters.
ones who could easily add to that total : Bod, Amaechi, Sadlier , Isgrove .
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Post by OohMac on Mar 6, 2022 10:11:58 GMT
Looking at the stats definitely think weve more goals to come this last quarter season.
What is happening with Ameachi by the way? No game time at all with Thomason getting some minutes.
Came as a wonder kid on reduced wages. You would think he would need to massively reduce those to get another season here. We still have Izzy and Kachunga to come back too.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Mar 6, 2022 10:58:04 GMT
agree OM, with the Bolton mark 2.0 team ( 7 signings in Jan - & all pretty much 1st teamers ), this team has tons of goals in it & more to come in this last quarter. we've scored 58 so far in 36 games. project that on to 46-season end ( div by 36 , and * by 46 ) and you get = 74 goals. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_EFL_League_One#League_tablenot one of the sides last yr with 74 goals missed out on play offs. 3 of the sides in the play offs didn't hit that total, and of course 74 is being quite modest, as a lot of that is including the first half of the season when our form had way more dips in it. www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england3last 10 games. 25 goals scored. 2.5 per game or last 12 games , 28 scored. 2.33 per game. obviously 58/36 = just 1.60 ish per game. so way way better now. now throw that forward & generate a realistic estimate with that goalscoring rate for our next 10 games , added on to our current total. even if we take the lower of the 2 form fig's & reduce a touch. 2.30 goal per game. 10 games. 23 goals. 58+23 = 81 goals. last season that'd blow away all play off teams, best had 77 (oxford), and even be more than Champions Hull (80). and just 2 behind Peterboro ( promoted in 2nd place ) who had top "goals for" fig of 83. if i get time, i'll check back and see how that metric measures up with the past 10 seasons or so.
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Post by OohMac on Mar 6, 2022 12:00:14 GMT
Just looked at the form from the last 10 games as a gauge. 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Best goal difference but defence not great.
So another 7 from 10 seems like a big ask but if we are genuinely the elite then I dont see why not. I mean if City and Liverpool drop points in 3 games it would rule them out of the title. We have to believe we are the best team in this league(Now) and go for it.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Mar 6, 2022 13:00:26 GMT
yep, whether you take the last 10 or 12, our goal diff is better than EVERY other team. like you say, some dodgy defence, but covered up by a larger number of goals.
i've checked the benchmark figures for the last 10 seasons in terms of what goal total guarantees you a play off place. can't see any team that has not made the play offs with a goal total of 78+.
& just look at those not getting a game...like you rightly say there OM, what's happeneded to Amaechi, he was being raved up as a wonder kid...a right sided version of Dapo. goals, assists, pace , skills etc. took a wage cut to be with us, and loan extended because IE had so much faith in him. for most sides, that'd be a big loss, he's that many options we hardly even talk about it.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Mar 6, 2022 15:59:47 GMT
stats on taking the lead. Marc iles had a tweet about this. didn't really take it in as I was busy at the time, but certainly an interesting subject and one i've been meaning to delve into.
times when we've scored the 1st goal.
36 games. just 12 times we got it. 23 times we didn't. and must be 1 goal-less draw.
of the 12 , when we scored first. we've won all 12
of the 23 times when we've not scored first. only 4 wins. 14 losses. 5 draws.
you can split it into home & away. i'll ignore the home stuff as our home record is pretty good.
away stuff still concerning. still expect us to be a shade better than this with the Bolton mark 2.0 side.
just 3 in 19 away games, we've actually scored first, and...guess what..we've won all 3 !!
of the 16 which we didn't score 1st, we won only 3 of those games. drew 2. lost 11.
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Post by whitesince63 on Mar 6, 2022 18:45:17 GMT
Interesting stats those rtf, pretty awful on the away results. Thankfully our games against our main rivals are at the UniBol so going on current stats and results we should have a better than even chance of winning them. If we seriously expect to make the top six,nothing less than wins will do in my opinion as even draws won’t gain us ground. Looking at the remaking games though, our last four are all entirely winnable, including Cambridge, so if we can beat Plymouth, Wednesday and Portsmouth, its definitely doable. Portsmouth are the most likely to spike us as their run in looks the easiest on paper, though that can sometimes work against you if you get complacent. It’s certainly a big ask but to be honest, I’d rather be the one chasing than the one looking over their shoulder, so six points this week is absolutely essential and I believe we can do it.
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