So
The SuperComputer predicts that we’ll finish on 70 points and we will end up exactly where we sit right now, 10th
So 13 games @ 1.69 points per game gives us that 22 points
Are we better than this prediction?
My predictions are thus
H Lincoln City 3
A MK Dons 1
A Gillingham 3
H Morecambe 3
H Plymouth 1
A Crewe 3
H Portsmouth 3
A Wigan 1
H Sheff Wed 1
A Doncaster 3
H AccyStan 1
A Cheltenham 3
H Fleetwood 3
That gives us 29 points to add to our already 48 and would put us on 77 points
If Ian wants a play off spot, he’s going to have to see my predictions and drill it into his players, it’s looking like the above predictions of mine still might not get us into the PO zone and therefore anything less than a complete run of wins from now until the end will get us there
Just my opinions for what they are worth but we will have to be immaculate from now until season end
Can we???
COYWM
Let’s do this⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️
certainly think your predictions are better than the Supercomputer. 1.69 is ridiculously low, considering we've been achieving 2.30+ over the last 8. even a downturn has us around 2.00 / 2.10 ppg. these things are a bit like bookies odds.. always bit slow to react. they
act as if you've got the same team, achieving an upturn, and then sort of expect there'll be a regression to the mean, that you can't keep up. fair enough if you
have the same players, but not if you have a totally different squad.
just checked the 75pt target i keep referring to, even further back than the 3 or 4 years i've prev checked.
www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-one/league-table/2019-2020 checked on here several years, then a couple further back on wiki. 75 pt's does the job for EVERY YEAR that
i checked as far back as 2010/11.
funnily enough, the Covid affected year. they only played 35 games, and several were on 60 pt's. which projects up to approx 79 pts ( after 46 games) . which tends to suggest it's
not uncommon for the target to seem high at this point, but to drift back down later on, as it's very odd to be an exception year, because it is already an exception from the point that the full 46 games were not completed.
I do think we could easily lose a game , but to counter balance that , we could easily win one of the tougher ones too..the MK's or Wigan or Plymouth or Sheff wed.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/the site actually goes into details of each game. interesting stuff. i've bookmarked it. don't know if i've missed something but can only see sheff wed. it thinks a draw. and wigan...it gives them the edge. all the rest
we seem to be faves...sometimes by a big % , sometimes smaller. but having seen the 1.69 pts, i was expecting more dropped pt's clearly predicted. maybe it edges out some of the slight advantages we have to just draws.
glad it at least shows a bit of sense in having Sunderland out of the play offs, as i said in a recent post. really surprised by bookies odds, and think we have a decent chance of overhauling them.
www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england3their form - on any basis you choose & this site is very good offering 6 , 8, 10 games or , 4 at home , away etc whatever... they are sliding fast.
last 10 games. 20th in form table.
last 12 games - 18th !.
we have the squad to rotate and keep players fresh, deal with suspensions, injuries, form dips etc. just got to be clever with rotation. thought we'd use it more last year, but we didn't.
any news what's happening to Dion and any ban for that historic racism on twitter ? 4 match ban would be a big loss.
its' not just the wins. we've been keeping a lot of clean sheets. still could do with a few more away from home. but 2+ goals also important.
in the last 9 games, only 3 when we didn't hit 2 or more goals.. the 3 games all away..Burton, Morecambe, & Shrews .
bit different to Wycombe..conceding 5 at the weekend & no wins in 5.