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Post by realtrottersforever on Feb 13, 2022 20:59:46 GMT
bit of play-off Maths & calc's. Plymouth currently in 6th. 53 pts in 30 games. 1.766 pts per game. project on x 46= 81 pts after 46 games. quite high as , wasn't it more like 75 pts in last 3 seasons for a certain play off spot .( excluding covid affected ) that i've recently quoted on here as the general target points.
75pts less the 45 we have. target = 30 pt's. 15 games to get them. 2 pt's per game. thing is over last 7 games ,we've won 6 and drew 1 . 6 *3 = 18 +1 = 19 . 19/7 = 2.71 ppg over the last 7 games.
not sure we can keep up 2.70 +, but even 2.5 ppg is massive, and catches you up pretty fast. there will be the odd slip up.but we had several last year too..Bradford, Exeter, Newport, Grimsby etc.
the thing the also helped us last year, was the collapses of other clubs. generally ,as we've seen in past relegation or promotion battles, you call it a good week if 60-70% of the other results go for you. last season there were several freakish weeks when about 90-100% of other results went for us. we can't expect that one again surely, but mini collapses already elsewhere. Sunderland & Wycombe- no wins in last 4. 2 consecutive losses for Oxford & no clean sheets for ages. Mk no wins in last 2 & next 3 games are away at Sunderland, away at Charlton & home to us. Wigan 1 win in last 4.
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Post by whitesince63 on Feb 14, 2022 9:53:11 GMT
Making the play offs is undoubtedly still a tough ask but when you consider we still have 4 of the teams above us to play yet, plus most of them still have Wigan and Rotherham to play, as well as playing each other, there’s no reason why we can’t again be that team who comes from within the pack. At the moment, we are very much the form team and there is no reason why we can’t continue winning with the squad we’ve got. Clearly, it only takes a few injuries, or suspensions to key players to stop our gallop, as it did earlier in the season but if we’re lucky and we don’t suffer that, I genuinely believe we can do it. Of course there has to be zero let up but as you say, we did have one or two slips last year and still made it. Teams do fall away for various reasons but we just have to keep winning, taking it one game at a time and see where it takes us. Last year was fantastic but to do it this year against better quality opponents would be even more remarkable but not impossible. Believe 😉
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Post by riochforthereebok on Feb 14, 2022 10:15:29 GMT
I too think we can make the play offs but we have to take Burton to the cleaners for starters
Rotherham probably just edge Wigan as the best team in the league (shhhhhhh don’t tell Ian) but they and Wigan are beatable and the defeats we’ve suffered to both of these sides would not have happened with our current playing squad
There does seem to be a spirited camaraderie amongst the squad at the moment and all seems to be going uphill, with injured players chomping at the bit to get back and goals coming through the team, rather than relying on the old ‘Doyle’ method. Mentioning Doyle, I can’t believe how quickly I’d forgotten him since our upturn in fortunes
Keep it going Trotters
COYWM ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️
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Post by whitesince63 on Feb 14, 2022 14:15:50 GMT
I too think we can make the play offs but we have to take Burton to the cleaners for starters Rotherham probably just edge Wigan as the best team in the league (shhhhhhh don’t tell Ian) but they and Wigan are beatable and the defeats we’ve suffered to both of these sides would not have happened with our current playing squad There does seem to be a spirited camaraderie amongst the squad at the moment and all seems to be going uphill, with injured players chomping at the bit to get back and goals coming through the team, rather than relying on the old ‘Doyle’ method. Mentioning Doyle, I can’t believe how quickly I’d forgotten him since our upturn in fortunes Keep it going Trotters COYWM ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️ Actually rftr, I think Wigan are the better team. Having seen quite a bit of Rotherham, including against us, they seem to steal results rather than win comfortably. I do agree though that we’d beat both of them with this team and I’m hoping we’ll prove that when we go to Wigan. I’m glad it’s away because we’ll have a massive following and there will be more pressure on them in front of their own fans. We just have to keep the momentum up until then and with two winnable home games following tomorrows, we should be in a really strong position. Obviously we don’t want any slip ups, or thinking we’ve won our home games by just turning up which is always the danger if players relax but hopefully the squad we have now won’t do that? I believe they’ve got their eye on the prize now and it’s becoming more and more attainable. Let’s just hope the weather doesn’t put tomorrows game off because their pitch isn’t brilliant at the best of times and this recent rain won’t help.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Feb 14, 2022 21:23:48 GMT
comparing win %'s in different leagues over totally different era's. you may as well compare Newcastle managers who managed in PL with those who managed in Championship, after they'd got relegated & cruised back up so easily !?! (edit) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Newcastle_United_F.C._managersand lo & behold Chris Hughton does win on that metric... almost 60% win% with 50+ games. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Manchester_United_F.C._managers#:~:text=On%2019%20January%202019%2C%20Solskj%C3%A6r,was%20given%20the%20job%20permanently. just to prove how stupid it is, Ole Solskjaer has a better win % than Matt Busby . I know which manager i'd prefer. if you want to do comparisons in this Div, i'm quite happy to quote Parky's for his first year in this Div, with us. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E2%80%9317_EFL_League_OneParky 16/17 lge 1. 25 wins in 46. = 54.3% win %. 18 clean sheets .hardly ever moved out of the top 2 or 3 spots. 86 pt's. 10 defeats all year. fewest conceded of any team in the Div (36)...11 less than Champs ..Sheff utd. Evatt so far lge 1. 13 in 31. 41.9%. already had 12 defeats. already conceded 41 goals. 5 more than we did all season in 16/17. don't think people give Parky enough credit for that season. he had tfr restrictions, having to work with the Andersons & a club in free-fall. we weren't just relegated the season before. we were on a grim losing streak under Lennon which got even worse when Reid & Jiminho came in. every game was like the Alamo. shots raining in, massacred week in, week out. couldn't get a shot in ourselves never mind a goal. confidence on the floor !!. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Bolton_Wanderers_F.C._season#League_tablerock bottom. 5 wins all season in 15/16. nearly 20 pt's behind the safety zone of 21st place. 1 win in our 1st 23 games that season. grimmer than grim !! . THIS IS A GREAT LINK THIS ONE- FASCINATING STUFF ! www.myfootballfacts.com/england_footy/football-league/club-league-history-summary/ we're ranked 14th for % of time spent in the top Div. ( effectively 13th as the Accrington they refer to is Accy fc, not Stanley and they dissolved in 1896 !) we've had 122 seasons in the football league . 73 in top tier. 34 in tier 2. just 13 in tier 3 , and just 2 in tier 4. and both times we hit tier 4, we bounced straight back . so to try and compare a manager given resources in tier 4, like the previous season topscorer (doyle) and player from team of the year (sarce), with some of our previous managers from higher tiers where you are bound to lose more, or top managers from way back is ludicrous. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bolton_Wanderers_F.C._managersjust the 3 f.a cups for Charlie Foweraker back in the 1920's, and our highest lge finish ever in the top flight ( 3rd or 4th was it ? ) . & he discovered Sir Nat . en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Foweraker
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Post by chip on Feb 15, 2022 5:24:51 GMT
I think the trouble with Parky was his constant use of the hoof ball apart from that brilliant season job done. I have nowt against hoof ball as long as it’s not for the bleeding whole game, I told my defenders when I was a keeper many many years ago if in doubt get rid don’t piss about. Great read though while I’m at work cheers stay safe one and all onwards and upwards COYWM
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Post by realtrottersforever on Feb 15, 2022 10:17:31 GMT
the style was certainly direct, but I think it's odd for BWFC fans to have a massive problem with that, as you may as well decry all of our Premier lge years as "unworthy" or something like that, like the media try to pin on BSA etc. looking back at that year and the goals, plenty of decent play in there. as well as a lot of set pieces , but we would like 1 or 2 more of them now. blimey that brings back some memories. it's a season oft forgot. we'd had so many bad years before it. and getting us over-promoted in a way just threw us into more trouble, back to losing far more than you win, then style becomes more of an issue....although I'm never too sure how losing tons of games playing a better style is much consolation. we did pull off the miracle in the end and stayed up. but it was going to be hard to repeat. off the field issues. Ken more interested in finding a buyer to sell at the right time, than investing in the club etc. enjoy the goals. totally forgot that screamer from Chris Long (7.49). some nice ones by Cloughie (4.20) (5.25) (7.13), Vela 8.42 , (10.56) etc , Alfie 8.48 ,Karacan, Ameobi 6.12 etc. nice bits of Stanley Matthews-type wing play by Morais. (9.19) (9.30) (9.53) I don't see much hoof ball in that goal at 5.53.
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Post by chip on Feb 15, 2022 11:41:45 GMT
Brilliant to watch that cheers onwards and upwards stay safe one and all COYWM
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Post by whitesince63 on Feb 15, 2022 12:15:53 GMT
Yes, some cracking memories in there rtf and how good were Cloughie and Josh at that time. What a shame things didn’t turn out for them and us. The Cloughie move to Forest was a disaster for the lad and who knows what he could have achieved if he’d stayed here? It still doesn’t in any way change my opinion of Parky though. He was and always will be negative in his thoughts and deeds and even in our promotion year back to the Championship he nearly threw it away with his fixation on one up top, never accepting how much better we’d have been with ALF and The Washing Machine up top together and all those loaned strikers he stuck out on the wing because of it. No sorry, for me Parky was Mr Neanderthal and always will be.
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Post by realtrottersforever on Feb 15, 2022 15:22:56 GMT
yes, Whites, been tracking Cloughie's appearances this year at Carlisle. still done very little for them. 2 in 17. now moved to Oz, so won't be tracking him there. not sure whether it's been injuries or what, that's meant he's never fulfilled his potential. always remember Freedman talking up Clough but then not playing him. Lennon did well for many of them. played Vela, although mainly at right back, but he did well there even in the Ch'ship. and got Clough going. and re-invigorated CYL after the torments of that idiot DF...who kept insisting on playing him on left wing cutting in ...modern football he claimed.
liked Lennon a lot. instant impact without even signing a player. I always blame DF for not doing his due diligence. moving to us then moaning about budgets tightening. great judge isn't he. moves away from Palace..a club bound for 10 yrs in the Prem to Bwfc...a club bound for 10 yrs out of the Prem. maybe I should blame Lennon more for not doing his due diligence too.
choosing a management job to accept is like a boxer deciding who to fight to keep their proud unbeaten records going. choose too soft a fight, and people say you've only beaten bums. too hard a fight and you lose your record. if you bite off more than you can chew, it's hard to win back that respect. and you simply don't get asked back.
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Post by whitesince63 on Feb 15, 2022 16:08:15 GMT
yes, Whites, been tracking Cloughie's appearances this year at Carlisle. still done very little for them. 2 in 17. now moved to Oz, so won't be tracking him there. not sure whether it's been injuries or what, that's meant he's never fulfilled his potential. always remember Freedman talking up Clough but then not playing him. Lennon did well for many of them. played Vela, although mainly at right back, but he did well there even in the Ch'ship. and got Clough going. and re-invigorated CYL after the torments of that idiot DF...who kept insisting on playing him on left wing cutting in ...modern football he claimed. liked Lennon a lot. instant impact without even signing a player. I always blame DF for not doing his due diligence. moving to us then moaning about budgets tightening. great judge isn't he. moves away from Palace..a club bound for 10 yrs in the Prem to Bwfc...a club bound for 10 yrs out of the Prem. maybe I should blame Lennon more for not doing his due diligence too. choosing a management job to accept is like a boxer deciding who to fight to keep their proud unbeaten records going. choose too soft a fight, and people say you've only beaten bums. too hard a fight and you lose your record. if you bite off more than you can chew, it's hard to win back that respect. and you simply don't get asked back. Yes rtf, I was really disappointed that Zach left and thought he’d do well at Forest but sadly not. I still think he’d have made it here if he’d stayed, which he wanted to do I believe but obviously the club needed the money so he went. Great shame. On Lennon, whilst I didn’t like the man personally, he did get us playing some good stuff with some iffy players, so he gets credit for that. Maybe had he been allowed the money others before him got he’d have succeeded but as you say it’s maybe a case of wrong club wrong time?
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Post by riochforthereebok on Feb 15, 2022 18:52:02 GMT
Yes, some cracking memories in there rtf and how good were Cloughie and Josh at that time. What a shame things didn’t turn out for them and us. The Cloughie move to Forest was a disaster for the lad and who knows what he could have achieved if he’d stayed here? It still doesn’t in any way change my opinion of Parky though. He was and always will be negative in his thoughts and deeds and even in our promotion year back to the Championship he nearly threw it away with his fixation on one up top, never accepting how much better we’d have been with ALF and The Washing Machine up top together and all those loaned strikers he stuck out on the wing because of it. No sorry, for me Parky was Mr Neanderthal and always will be. “All those loaned strikers he stuck out on the wing” That £25m pound man Alan Armstrong Had Parky played him the right way, He could have been the saviour of this club, the down side being that Ken Anderson would have probably pocketed all of the money from the sale of him, had we bought him from Newcastle when he was worthless
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